OIL SECOTR
CLSA ON GAS PRICE HIKE : 01.04.2022
* CLSA sees massive 160%/130% upside for ONGC/Oil India on gas price rise. Also, it believes, price hike should be manageable for IGL/MGL if domestic gas supply is reinstated
* Domestic Gas Price To More Than Double; Big Positive For ONGC/Oil India
* See Massive 160%/130% Upside For ONGC/Oil India
* Reforms Are Not Likely To Be Rolled Back Amid High Energy Prices
* Price Hike Should Be Manageable For IGL/MGL If Domestic Gas Supply Is Reinstated
* Oct 2022 Hike May Remain A Lingering Concern On H2 Margin For IGL/MGL
MS ON GAS PRICE HIKE : 01.04.2022
* India's Gas Producer Prices Have More Than Doubled In Past Six Months, As Expected
* Expect 25% Hike In October, As Gas Mkts Remain Tight
* Prefer Gas Producers ONGC & Reliance
* Underweight Call On Gas Midstream Players Petronet LNG & Guj Gas
NOMURA ON GAS PRICE HIKE : 01.04.2022
* APM Gas Prices Doubled, Ceiling Increased Sharply; Further Hikes Likely In Oct 22
* Upstream Gas Producers Key Beneficiaries; Negative For Gas Consumers
* CGDS Have Taken Sharp Price Hikes Already
* Pricing Power Remains Strong To Pass On Further Gas Price Hike
* GAIL Likely To Be Worst Impacted With End-prices Market-linked/regulated
* Sharp Price Hikes Might Hurt India's Gas Demand, Pricing Formula Needs A Relook
CITI ON OMCs : 23.03.2022
* OMCs raise prices fuel prices after a 4-month long pause.
* After An Over 4-mth Long Pause, OMCS Have Finally Raised The Retail Prices
* Believe Stocks Should Gradually Reverse Their Recent Underperformance
* HPCL Remains Preferred OMC Pick
CS DOWNGRADES INDIA ON HIGHER OIL PRICES : 08.03.2022
* Credit Suisse tactically cuts India position to Underweight from Overweight on higher oil. CS says it still likes India's +ve EPS revisions & positioning in credit & property cycles. It'll use funds freed from India to raise China to OW from Market Weight
* We Tactically Cut India Position To Underweight From Overweight Will Look For Opportunities To Re-enter Indian Market
* Our Downgrade Of India Is Tactical And Largely Based On Higher Oil Prices
* Oil Hurts Current A/c, Add To Infin Pressures & Increase Sensitivity To Fed Rate Hikes
* Still Like India's +ve EPS Revisions & Positioning in Credit And Property Cycles
* In Asia, India Is Most Vulnerable To Higher Oil Prices, Along With Philippines
* Rich Valuations Magnify The Short-term Risks
* Will Use Funds Freed From India To Raise China From Market Weight To Overweight
CLSA ON OIL & GAS : 07.03.2022
* Futures Curve Of Spot LNG & Europe Gas Price Rose 50-60 % In Last 1 Mth
* Spot LNG Price Is Seen Elevated At Well Over $30/mmBtu Through 2022
* Higher Spot LNG Price May Be A Big Positive For GAIL's Gas Trading Profit
* Our Marker Seas Domestic Gas Price Rising From $3.2/mmBtu To $7 By Apr 2022
* Domestic Gas Price May Nearly Quadruple To Over $12 By Oct 2022
* Using This & FY23 Brent, Points To 165% / 135% Upside For ONGC/Oil India
* Weak Jan 2022 Volume Does Not Bode Well For Q4 Volumes Of GAIL. GSPL & Petronet
MS ON OIL EARNINGS CYCLE : 19.01.2022
* Deficit in global oil markets, rising domestic production, higher gas prices
• See a triple boost to ONGC/OIL's earnings
• Both, earning quality and growth, will improve
• Portfolio restructuring to lead to steep increase in ROCE
* Investor conviction still fragile, offering room to outperform
• Maintain Overweight on ONGC, Target upped at Rs 263/share
* Maintain Overweight on Gail & HPCL
GOLDMAN SACHS ON OIL : 18.01.2022
* Target for Brent spot forecast at $105/bbl in 2023
* Target for Brent oil at $96/bbl in 2022
* Long-term shortages require near-term surpluses
* Robust fundamentals have reversed last year's oil price meltdown
• Chinese demand will be large due to its zero-Covid policy
* Expect inventory draws to narrow but persist through Q122
• At $85/bbl market would remain at such critical levels
MORGAN STANLEY ON OIL : 06.01.2022
• Oil market could see simultaneously low inventories
• Risks to oil prices remains skewed to upside
• See low spare capacity and low investment levels by H2
* Reiterate our $90/bbl Brent forecast for Q3
* . Spare capacity likely to fall below 2 mb/d by H2
• Expect prices will need to rise to levels where some demand erosion takes place
CLSA ON Oil & GAS : 06.01.2022
* CLSA on Oil & Gas: demand back below pre-COVID levels; OPEC output still below target
• Demand Back Below Pre-COVID Levels; OPEC Output Still Below Target
• QoQ Gains In GRM & Improvements In Mktg Margin Should Augur Well For OMCs In Q3
* ONGC & Oil India Remain Our Top Buys
MORGAN STANLEY ON GAS : 30.12.2021
* Gas demand was 3% above pre-COVID run rate, here's what MS has to say about it
* Gas Demand Was 3% Above Pre COVID Run Rate- +ve For Gujarat Gas
• Gas Demand 3% Above Pre-COVID Run Rate Neutral For GAIL & Petronet LNG
• Key Positive Was Steady LNG Demand From All Sectors (Ex-power) Despite High Spot Prices
CITI ON OIL & GAS : 20.12.2021
• 2022 outlook Mixed'; Being selective
• Year ahead for OMCS should be marked by a recovery in marketing margins
* Getting closure on the much-delayed BPCL privatisation
* RIL earnings should see a revival across the board
• HPCL & Gujarat Gas are our preferred sector picks
CLSA on Oil and gas : 14.07.2021
* India’s gas consumption rose 11% YoY in May
* LNG demand grew just 2% YoY
* domestic gas output jumped 19% YoY to a two-year high
* Asian spot LNG price gained 10% to US$13/mmbtu
* Spot LNG futures suggest elevated prices (US$13-16) until Mar-22
MACQUARIE ON OMCS : 13.07.2021
* Macquarie continues to expect a cyclical improvement in refining margins on OMCs
• Continue To Expect A Cyclical Improvement In Refining Margins
* Core Refining Margin May Improve To $4 From An Avg Of $1.50/bbl
• Every $1 Rise Adding 9-15% To Earnings
* HPCL Has Bottom-up Capacity Growth Drivers
• Have Buy Call On HPCL, Target At 516/Sh
CREDIT SUISSE ON OMC : 18.06.2021
* Marketing margins now normalised
• Time to focus on post-divestment changes in sector
• Prefer BPCL among OMCS
• Believe new buyer has substantial room to increase
* Volumes shifts should negatively impact EBITDA for IOC and HPCL
CREDIT SUISSE ON OIL MKTG COS : 18.06.2021
* Time to focus on post-divestment changes in oil marketing sector, Credit Suisse says
• Marketing Margin Now Normalised; Prefer BPCL Among OMCS
* Time To Focus On Post-divestment Changes In Sector
* Believe New Buyer Has Substantial Room To Increase EBITDA Via Mkt Shr Gains
* New Buyer Will Have Headroom To Reduce Refinery Costs & Increase Non-fuel Rev
• Marketing Volume Shifts Should Negatively Impact EBITDA For IOC & HPCL
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY : 11.06.2021
* Global #oil demand to reach pre-#virus levels next year: IEA (Agencies)
• Global oil demand to reach pre-virus levels next year
• Non-OPEC+ oil output is set to rise 710,000 bpd in 2021
• Jet & kerosene demand will see largest increase followed by gasoline & diesel
• Recovery will be uneven not only amongst regions but across sectors and products
• OPEC+ needs to open the taps to keep world oil markets adequately supplied
• Room in 2022 for OPEC+ to boost production by 1.4 mn bpd above its July-March target